Scoring Position
Second or third base, on the theory that a single scores him from either.
What it actually is. A runner on second or third base is in scoring position, because a single will usually bring him home. Runners in scoring position, shortened to RISP, is one of the most quoted situational splits in baseball broadcasting.
What somebody who knows the game gets out of it. The situational split is quoted far more than it deserves, and this is the clearest case in the sport of a number that looks like a skill and is mostly noise. Hitting with runners in scoring position does not repeat well season to season for individual hitters, and a man batting .180 with RISP over 120 at bats is almost always the same hitter as the one batting .280 overall. Teams do vary a little, but the variance is far smaller than the commentary implies, and the reason it feels real is that those at bats are the memorable ones.
The numbers worth knowing. A team gets roughly 1,200 to 1,400 plate appearances with runners in scoring position over a season, which is a large sample for a team and a small one for any individual hitter. Run expectancy with a man on second and nobody out is about 1.1 runs; with a man on third and one out about .95.
What people get wrong about it. Clutch, as a repeatable individual skill, has been looked for very hard and found only in very small amounts. That does not mean the situation is not different, because it plainly is: defenses move, pitchers pitch from the stretch, and approaches change. It means that this hitter is good with men on is usually a claim about a hundred at bats rather than about a person.
At Little League and travel ball. At youth level scoring position means much more, because a passed ball scores a man from third at a rate that no professional level approaches. That is why the aggressive youth strategy of stealing third is frequently correct even at poor success rates, and why the catcher who can block is worth more than the catcher who can throw.
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